Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
